Social forecasting is a field of sociological research (perspectives on social phenomena and processes) and at the same time part of an interdisciplinary complex of future studies. It developed in the USSR in the second half of the 60s, when the “forecast boom” reached Moscow.

Then it was destroyed in the late 60s and throughout the 70s-80s. developed in two ways: official (as part of the “Comprehensive Program of Scientific and Technological Progress,” which served as a kind of scientific cover for voluntaristic planning) and unofficial (in one of the committees of the Union of Scientific and Engineering Societies). In 1989-1990 both branches entered a state of collapse. Since the beginning of the 90s. Attempts are being made to revive this area of social research within the framework of the Association for the Advancement of the World Federation for Future Studies.

In the scientific literature, there are several approaches to explaining the essence of forecasting. The most widespread point of view is that of I.V. Bestuzhev-Lada, who proceeds from the fact that the forecast does not provide for solutions to the problems of the future. Its task is different: to promote scientific substantiation of plans and decisions. Forecasting supposedly characterizes a possible set of necessary ways and means of implementing the planned program of action. In this regard, a number of authors believe that a forecast should mean a probabilistic statement about the future with a relatively high degree of reliability. Its difference from foresight is that the latter is interpreted as an apodictic (non-probabilistic) statement about the future, based on absolute certainty, or (another approach) is a logically constructed model of a possible future with an as yet undetermined level of certainty. It is not difficult to notice that the degree of reliability of statements about the future is used as the basis for distinguishing terms.

There are other points of view. According to K. Schuster, the forecast has a specific nature and is necessarily associated with the “calendar”, i.e. with certain quantitative estimates. In accordance with this, he classifies the expected number of crimes in the next calendar year as forecasts, and the early release of a prisoner under certain conditions as predictions. A. Schmidt and D. Smith state that a forecast is usually understood as a quantitative prediction. Thus, a “line of demarcation” is drawn between qualitative (prediction) and quantitative (forecast) assessments of the future.

An interesting point made by D. Johnson. He believes that prediction is the prerogative of the physical sciences, since it requires the application of a “comprehensive law.” Since the social disciplines have little basis for formulating laws of this type, they are limited to forecasts reflecting realistic or probable combinations of assumed guidelines and initial conditions. Forecasts from social disciplines, in his opinion, act as “substitutes” for predictions from more exact sciences.

Some authors do not particularly bother themselves with defining the essence of forecasting in the sense that they do not separate it from foresight and planning. There is a rational point in these arguments, since social planning, to a certain extent, is also forecasting, but not vice versa.

The fact that it has to some extent become identified with the word “prophecy,” which has an unambiguous negative meaning, has played a disservice in social prognostication. However, not to mention social prognostication, the prophecy is not without positive principles.

Clarification of the essence of forecasting is inextricably linked, according to the fair statement of V.A. Lisichkin, with the need to “develop a specifically prognostic system of concepts,” including “the correct definition of the concept of “forecast” and distinguishing it from such concepts as foresight, prediction, plan, program , project, expectation, assumption, hypothesis."

In works devoted to this issue or affecting it (meaning the works of I.V. Bestuzhev-Lada, A.V. Brushlinsky, A.M. Gendin, T.M. Rumyantseva, L.L. Rybakovsky, A.V. Ryabushin and others), many interesting thoughts were expressed about the specifics and correlation of the basic concepts of social prognosis. The complexity and difficulty of this task is explained primarily by the fact that the question of delimiting categories in the analysis of problems of the future has not been the subject of special research until recently. Its solution is not limited to the internal needs of prognostics and presupposes a terminological and semantic “docking” with other sciences that have gone through a more or less long path of development. And here a very contradictory situation arises.

On the one hand, the conceptual apparatus of social forecasting, which studies the laws, principles and methods of forecasting, cannot simply be borrowed from specific sciences. It is distinguished by the universality of its terms, i.e. the applicability of each of them with the meaning “attributed” to it in different branches of knowledge.

On the other hand, when improving the conceptual apparatus, social prognostics cannot ignore the traditions that have historically developed within the framework of various sciences, when they performed predictive functions. This includes features of the use of terms (for example, preference given to one or the other) and their interpretation.

But one should not exaggerate the fact that outside of social forecasting there continues to be an undifferentiated approach to it: it is important that forecasting itself and its developments constantly deepen the understanding of forecasting problems.

The introduction into circulation as synonyms of a number of terms that simultaneously belong to the main categories of prognostics creates conditions (of course, after each category has its own meaning in prognostication itself) for their subsequent delimitation in all sciences, including sociology .

This direction of further development seems to be the most likely. It is indisputable that in the presence of a dilemma generated by the action of two trends in the use of predictive terminology, the choice in sociology is determined depending on the problems being solved. It is this approach that makes it possible to overcome the doubts expressed by some scientists that “sociological theories do not have any basis for forecasts for the future.”

It is necessary to say more about such distinctive features of social forecasting. Firstly, the formulation of the goal here is relatively general and abstract: it allows for a high degree of probability. The purpose of forecasting is, based on an analysis of the state and behavior of the system in the past and the study of trends in changes in factors influencing the system under consideration, to correctly determine the quantitative and qualitative parameters of its development in the future, to reveal the content of the situation in which the system will find itself.

Secondly, social forecasting does not have a prescriptive nature. In other words, the qualitative difference between a variant forecast and a specific plan is that the forecast provides information to justify decisions and select planning methods. It indicates the possibility of one or another path of development in the future, and the plan expresses a decision about which of the possibilities society will realize.

And finally, social forecasting has specific methods: complex extrapolation, modeling, and the ability to conduct experiments. Let's look at this in more detail.

Social forecasting uses several methods. First of all, this is a method of expert assessments, designed to give an objective description of the qualitative and quantitative aspects of the forecast object based on the processing and analysis of a set of individual expert opinions. The quality of expert assessment, its reliability and validity depend critically on the chosen methodology for collecting and processing individual expert values, which includes the following stages: selection of experts and assessment of their competence; compiling questionnaires for interviewing experts; obtaining expert opinions; assessing the consistency of expert opinions; assessment of the reliability of the results; drawing up a program for processing expert opinions.

Solving such a difficult task as forecasting new directions, necessary to determine prospects and trends, requires more advanced scientific and organizational methods for obtaining expert assessments.

One of them is called the “Delphic Oracle Method”, or “Delphi Method”. It involves a complex procedure for obtaining and mathematically processing answers. On its basis, scientists put forward forecasts for decades to come regarding scientific, technical and social progress, military-political and some other problems. But to what extent are long-term (and even more so ultra-long-term) foresights compiled in this way and the method of their formation itself reliable?

Forecasts obtained using the “Delphi method” are based on research and objective knowledge of the object, taking into account the subjective views and opinions of respondents regarding this future.

In this case, intuition plays an important role, which can suggest the right decision, since it is based on the extensive experience of the expert. Of course, in such cases, forecasts sometimes turn out to be erroneous, of which history knows many examples. Therefore, an intuitive approach does not always lead to the desired results, especially when solving problems of great complexity, and social forecasting is increasingly faced with precisely such problems. The study of intuitive forecasts, writes, for example, the Austrian forecaster E. Jantsch, reveals that “they are rather chaotic scraps of systematic thinking, uncritical extrapolations of the current state of affairs and repetitions of other forecasts.”

Typically, the “Delphi method” allows one to identify the prevailing judgment of respondents on a selected range of problems. It is especially suitable for making short-term forecasts, predicting local events, i.e. in relatively simple cases. But the use of the method of expert assessments in any of its variants for long-term, comprehensive, and especially global social foresight increases the reliability of forecasts.

Along with the positive aspects of the expert assessment method, it is also necessary to note its disadvantages: it is cumbersome, since a lot of time is spent on each cycle of receiving expert responses, which provide a fairly large amount of information. In addition, since the method is based on intuition and subjective views of the respondents, the quality of the assessment directly depends on the qualifications of the experts.

The method of mathematical modeling (solution optimization) is associated with the search for various development options, which makes it possible to select the optimal option for given conditions. The task of choosing the optimal long-term development option requires determining the optimality criterion, which should reflect the efficiency of the system and have a simple mathematical expression. Among the methods for solving optimization problems, linear programming is widely used. Dynamic programming problems consider a system that can change its state over time, and this process can be controlled.

All mathematical models and forecasting methods are probabilistic in nature and vary depending on the duration of the forecast period. The use of models increases the efficiency of forecasting, allows you to consider a large number of possible options and select the most appropriate one. However, there are also negative aspects to modeling due to the insufficient accuracy and elasticity of models when forecasting for a long period.

The extrapolation method is aimed at constructing dynamic (statistical or logical) series of indicators of the predicted process from the earliest possible date in the past up to the date of the forecasts. A great effect is achieved by using complex extrapolation formulas, conclusions from probability theory, game theory - the entire arsenal of modern mathematics and cybernetics, which makes it possible to more accurately assess the scale of possible shifts in extrapolated trends.

In social forecasting, the possibilities of extrapolation are limited. This is due to a number of reasons. Some social processes develop along curves close to a logical function. Until a certain period, the process slowly increases, then a period of rapid development begins, which ends with a saturation stage. After this, the process stabilizes again. Failure to take this requirement into account leads to serious errors.

One way to test the reliability of this method would be to extrapolate growth curves “to the point of absurdity.” It shows that the current mechanism must change in the future, and new trends in its development will emerge. In this case, a correct decision requires an integrated approach that combines logical analysis, expert assessments and regulatory calculations.

Thus, social forecasting is based on the study of objective patterns of scientific, technical and social progress, as well as on modeling options for their future development in order to form, justify and optimize promising solutions.

Foreign experience (in particular the USA) shows that forecasting social systems occupies a leading place (53%) among other areas of research. According to time parameters, the percentage of research is as follows: for 5 - 10 years - 52%; for 5 - 25 years - 64%; for 10 - 25 or more years - 26%.

The forecasting process itself involves: conducting a brief retrospective analysis of the forecasted object; description of the current state of the object (comparative analysis of observed trends in domestic and foreign experience); identifying problems:

already solved, but their implementation and implementation is just beginning;

those problems that have been solved but have not found practical use;

expert assessments of leading scientific research in this field.

The main conditions for the reliability of forecasts include:

a) depth and objectivity of the analysis;

b) knowledge of specific conditions;

c) efficiency, competence and speed in carrying out and processing materials.

Of particular importance in social forecasting is information, a data bank of statistical material.

In theoretical and methodological terms, it is necessary to take into account a number of important provisions:

perception of social processes as an objective reality;

using a holistic, systematic approach to research;? historical determinism, i.e. recognition of the cause-and-effect conditions of these processes.

When analyzing the level of forecasting activity, one should take into account many factors that influence the effectiveness of forecasts and their qualitative characteristics.

There are factors of a fundamental, methodological nature and a high degree of complexity. This is, first of all, the ability to take into account the specifics of the relationships between the socio-economic and spiritual-ideological aspects when developing models, forecasts and their results.

Some organizational deficiencies should be attributed to two groups of people: those who develop models and forecasts, and those who try to implement the research results.

The insufficiently high professional level of forecasters and experts, their lack of information about the positions of potential customers, in whose interests certain models and forecasts are being developed, lead to a number of undesirable aspects, on the basis of which a number of conclusions can be drawn.

The first conclusion is the discrepancy between the volume of descriptive and informational materials (up to 90%) and procedural content in forecast reports. As a result, the smallest volume compared to retrospection is occupied by extremely important information about forecasting measures, the procedure for processing information, and the sources used.

The second conclusion is that often primary attention is paid to the research approach to the very process of developing forecasts and less to the analysis of the prognostic background of the interrelations of various factors, the so-called external environment, and the use of higher order prognostic systems.

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Introduction
3.2 Forecast calculations of social development indicators
Conclusion
List of used literature

Introduction

Social forecasting is a special study of possible options for the development of social objects. A social object can be a social phenomenon, a process, a social layer, and the social state of an individual. The purpose of social forecasting is to prepare scientifically based proposals on the directions in which the development of a social object is desirable.

Social forecasting is of great importance in modern science. Events that took place in the life of society, decisions made by heads of state, entail certain consequences. Today, management decisions are made under the influence of existing socio-economic problems in society. Forecasts make it possible to influence social processes, increase the efficiency of decisions made, and avoid undesirable consequences for society. Today, forecasting is an integral part of management activities.

A forecast is a scientifically based judgment about the possible states of an object, about alternative ways of its development over time, about the effect of various external and internal factors on the object.

The main methods of social forecasting include logical methods, mathematical methods and modeling methods, as well as expert methods; The methodology of prognostic research is based on the most valuable theoretical achievements of many sciences: history, mathematics, philosophy, sociology, etc.

The purpose of the course work is to study the role of social forecasting in modern society and to identify the features of social forecasting in the Russian Federation.

The purpose of the course work predetermined the solution of the following tasks:

social forecasting indicator Russian

describe the prerequisites for the emergence and essence of social forecasting, factors and principles of social forecasting;

consider social forecasting as a tool for justifying state social policy;

consider the system of social forecasts and programs in the Russian Federation;

analyze the influence of social forecasts on the development of modern society;

identify problems in the development of social forecasting in modern conditions and ways to solve them;

consider forecast calculations of social development indicators.

The subject of the study is the role of social forecasting in the development of modern society. The object of research is social forecasting.

1. Theoretical and methodological foundations of social forecasting

1.1 Prerequisites for the emergence and essence of social forecasting. Factors and principles of social forecasting

The origin of social forecasting occurred in the 20-30s of the 20th century, when the ambiguity of social development became obvious: a new stage of scientific and technological progress was maturing, a socialist state emerged, offering new alternatives for the future, the third world with its colossal human reserves and social problems began to awaken .

This awareness of the new reality paved the way for the emergence of prognostics as a science. In the context of global wars and local military conflicts, economic and political upheavals, which permeated the entire world history of the twentieth century, the appeal to social forecasting was predominantly of an emergency nature. The scientific need for forecasting was formulated by the American scientist N. Wiener in the form of the foundations of cybernetics in the 40s. XX century. At the end of the 50s and in the 60s there was a wave of boom in scientific, technical, socio-economic, demographic, military-political forecasts. This situation led to intensive development of issues of methodology and forecasting techniques (G. Theil, B. de Jouvenel, D. Bell, E. Young, F. Polak). Modern social forecasting dates back to the works that appeared in the late 40s (J. Bernal, N. Wiener). During this period, the concept of a scientific and technological revolution was developed, and the effect of using search and normative forecasts in managing social processes was discovered. In 1968, when the entire world community was concerned about the ongoing threats of the outbreak of a third world war, a prominent public figure and industrialist A. Peccei founded the Club of Rome - an international organization of scientists, politicians and entrepreneurs, the purpose of which was to draw attention to strategic problems and prospects for global development.

During the 90s of the 20th century, there was a big leap in public consciousness, which is characterized by a deep awareness that it is social goals that unite people within the state, that the main wealth is human potential.

According to scientists, a society is progressing in which both the number and life expectancy of people are constantly increasing, material income per inhabitant is growing, and the social and cultural sphere is developing.

Social forecasting is the process of developing social forecasts, based on scientific methods of cognition of social and economic phenomena and the use of the entire set of methods, means and methods of social forecasting. Social forecasting is a scientific economic discipline that has as its object the process of reproduction of human capital, and its subject is knowledge of the possible states of functioning social objects in the future, the study of patterns and methods for developing social forecasts.

Social forecasting is the process of developing social forecasts, based on scientific methods of cognition of social and economic phenomena and the use of the entire set of methods, means and methods of social forecasting.

One of the important areas of forecasting social development is social forecasting - a scientific economic discipline that has as its object the process of reproduction of human capital, and its subject is the knowledge of the possible states of functioning social objects in the future, the study of patterns and methods for developing social forecasts.

Forecasting, including social forecasting, correlates with a broader concept - foresight as a proactive reflection of reality, based on knowledge of the laws of nature, society and thinking.

The main forecasting methods include:

· statistical methods;

· expert assessments (Delphi method);

· modeling.

The main functions of social forecasting are as follows:

systematic and systematic study of socio-economic objects (including research into the dynamics, structure of states; typology of socio-economic objects);

identification and analysis of general and particular patterns and trends in the development of socio-economic objects (including the construction of a theory of functioning and development; the construction of integral indicators of the quality or efficiency of the functioning of the socio-economic system; identification of explicit and latent factors of development, etc.) ;

assessment of the effects of identified trends in the future (research and modeling of the genesis of phenomena);

anticipation of new socio-economic situations, problems that require solutions;

identification of possible development alternatives in the future, as well as a corresponding economic assessment of time, material and financial resources to achieve them;

development of systems for monitoring the performance of socio-economic forecasting systems;

accumulation of information about the reliability of the forecasts being developed in order to optimize them.

At the present stage of development of prognostics Nayborodenko N.M. identifies several methodological principles on the basis of which the forecast object is analyzed and the forecast itself is developed.

The principle of systematicity implies the perception of society as a complex, ordered whole, including individuals and social communities, united by various connections and relationships, specifically social in nature.

Using the principle of social determination and development, forecasting takes into account the diverse connections and dependencies in social life (within the framework of a systems approach). Modern determinism presupposes the presence of many different objectively existing forms of interconnection between phenomena.

In the methodological aspect of social forecasting, the principle of consistency is important - the coordination of normative and search approaches and, accordingly, forecasts;

The principle of variation in forecasting guides developers of scientific forecasts towards their options. With the help of various options for one or another forecast, the problem of choosing the most optimal, desirable, or preferred development option - society, sphere, social group - is solved.

The principle of verifiability (from “verification”) of forecasting indicates a mandatory procedure for checking developed forecasts for accuracy, reliability, reliability, and their validity. There is a whole group of methods for this purpose, which will be discussed below.

The principle of profitability of forecasting is closely related to reliability, because only a reliable forecast can be cost-effective. This means that the costs of developing a forecast, and this is a very expensive study, must pay off not only, but also bring profit, income to the customer when using it, or a positive effect in any other case.

The principle of continuity of forecasting (especially in crisis conditions) requires adjustment of forecasts as new data about the forecast object becomes available. And this is possible with the functioning of constantly operating forecasting systems in research centers in order to monitor the situation and, accordingly, refine the forecast. Only in this case can you count on a reliable forecast.

1.2 Social forecasting as a tool for substantiating state social policy

Forecasting precedes decision-making; it is a very important, knowledge-intensive part of the work, but extremely necessary in the process of developing an effective management decision. Based on forecasts, social development programs for the Russian Federation and regions are developed.

Socio-economic forecasts are the most important component of the planning and management system. Using numerous methods of social forecasting, it is possible to foresee options and models for the development of the socio-economic state of society, and it is possible to determine how this or that management decision will affect society. Knowing the desired result of the control object, with the help of forecasting it is possible to identify the most effective set of actions necessary to achieve the result. The results of forecasting social development are used when authorities make specific decisions in the field of social and economic policy of states.

The results of state forecasting of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation are used when the legislative and executive authorities of the Russian Federation make specific decisions in the field of socio-economic policy of the state. Forecasting performs three main functions in government regulation of a market economy:

1) foreseeing possible trends and cyclical fluctuations in the socio-economic development of a country or region in the context of global dynamics and directions of transformation of the Society;

2) anticipation of options and possible consequences of strategic and tactical decisions made in the field of socio-economic, scientific and technical, environmental, foreign economic, territorial development;

3) timely introduction of adjustments or cancellation of decisions if required by changed environmental conditions or new conditions in the domestic and foreign markets.

Forecasts are needed by government agencies primarily to justify the strategy and development priorities for the long and medium term, i.e. for strategic planning . There are three main functions of strategic planning in a market economy. Firstly, determining the long-term goals of the country's socio-economic development, taking into account both internal needs, stages of development and transformation, and its place in the world civilizational space and the globalizing economy. Secondly, the choice of strategic priorities , allowing to achieve the goals of socio-economic, scientific, technical, innovative and environmental development in the future, taking into account the priority needs, the limited resources available and the capabilities of the state. Thirdly, the development of a mechanism for implementing the chosen system of priorities, the use of direct and indirect state regulation of socio-economic development for this purpose.

The goals and content of the system of state forecasts, the general procedure for developing these forecasts and programs in the Russian Federation are regulated by the federal law of July 20, 1995 N 115-FZ “On state forecasting and programs for the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation”, as well as its amendments.

Social forecasting is carried out both at the state and municipal levels. At the state level, social and socio-economic forecasts are more general in nature; these are forecasts for the development of the country as a whole, and at the municipal level, specific forecasts for the development of the municipality are developed. The real implementation of large investment projects and programs is possible only within the framework of specific regional entities of Russia within the framework of their socio-economic development programs.

Analysis of the socio-economic situation of the region, competitive advantages, investment attractiveness, strategic goals and development objectives, priority areas of development, implementation mechanisms, resource provision - all this is contained in strategic planning documents.

For territorial entities, strategic development consists of anticipating possible changes in the internal and external environment of the planning object (territory), adapting the process of its development to them.

The use of strategic planning tools as a specific management resource makes it possible to justify such territorial goals and mechanisms for achieving them, the implementation of which makes it possible to ensure sustainable integrated socio-economic development of territories in the long term, and rapid adaptation to changing environmental conditions.

2. The current state of social forecasting in the Russian Federation

2.1 System of social forecasts and programs in the Russian Federation

The Government of the Russian Federation ensures the development of state forecasts of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation (hereinafter referred to as the forecast of socio-economic development) for the long, medium and short term.

Forecasts of socio-economic development are developed based on a comprehensive analysis of the demographic situation, scientific and technical potential, accumulated national wealth, social structure, external situation of the Russian Federation, the state of natural resources and prospects for changes in these factors.

Forecasts of socio-economic development are developed for the Russian Federation as a whole, for national economic complexes and sectors of the economy, and for regions.

The forecast for the development of the public sector of the economy is highlighted separately.

Forecasts of socio-economic development are based on a system of demographic, environmental, scientific and technical, foreign economic, social, as well as sectoral, regional and other forecasts of individual socially significant areas of activity.

Forecasts of socio-economic development are developed in several versions, taking into account the probabilistic impact of internal and external political, economic and other factors.

Forecasts of socio-economic development include quantitative indicators and qualitative characteristics of the development of the macroeconomic situation, economic structure, scientific and technological development, foreign economic activity, dynamics of production and consumption, level and quality of life, environmental conditions, social structure, as well as educational, health and social systems. provision of the population.

A forecast of socio-economic development for the long term is developed every five years for a ten-year period. Based on the forecast of socio-economic development for the long term, the Government of the Russian Federation will organize the development of a concept for the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the long term.

The concept of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the long term specifies options for the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, identifies possible goals for the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, ways and means of achieving these goals.

The procedure for developing a forecast of socio-economic development and the procedure for developing the concept of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the long term are determined by the Government of the Russian Federation.

These forecasts of socio-economic development and the concept of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the long term are subject to publication.

In order to ensure the continuity of the socio-economic policy of the state, the data from the forecast of socio-economic development and the concept of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the long term are used in the development of forecasts of socio-economic development and programs for the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation in the medium term.

The forecast of socio-economic development for the medium term is developed for a period of three to five years and is adjusted annually.

The procedure for developing a forecast of socio-economic development for the medium term is determined by the Government of the Russian Federation.

The forecast of socio-economic development for the medium term is subject to publication.

The first message after assuming office of the President of the Russian Federation, with which he addresses the Federal Assembly, contains a special section devoted to the concept of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation in the medium term.

A special section of the message of the President of the Russian Federation characterizes the state of the economy of the Russian Federation, formulates and justifies the strategic goals and priorities of the state’s socio-economic policy, directions for the implementation of these goals, the most important tasks to be solved at the federal level, and provides the most important target macroeconomic indicators characterizing the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation in the medium term.

The Government of the Russian Federation is developing a program for the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the medium term based on the provisions contained in the message of the President of the Russian Federation.

The procedure for developing a program for the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the medium term is determined by the Government of the Russian Federation.

The program of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the medium term should reflect:

ѕ assessment of the results of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the previous period and characteristics of the state of the economy of the Russian Federation;

ѕ concept of the program of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the medium term;

* macroeconomic policy;

* institutional transformations;

* investment and structural policy;

* agricultural policy;

* environmental policy;

* social policy;

* regional economic policy;

* foreign economic policy.

The program for the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the medium term is officially submitted by the Government of the Russian Federation to the Federation Council and the State Duma.

The forecast of socio-economic development for the short term is developed annually.

The Government of the Russian Federation, simultaneously with the presentation of the draft federal budget, submits to the State Duma the following documents and materials:

* results of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation over the past period of the current year;

* forecast of socio-economic development for the coming year;

ѕ draft consolidated financial balance for the territory of the Russian Federation;

ѕ a list of the main socio-economic problems (tasks) that the policy of the Government of the Russian Federation is aimed at solving in the coming year;

ѕ list of federal target programs planned for financing from the federal budget for the coming year;

ѕ list and volumes of supplies of products for federal government needs according to an enlarged nomenclature;

* planned plans for the development of the public sector of the economy.

The Government of the Russian Federation, if necessary, submits draft federal laws that provide for measures to implement the tasks of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation in the coming year.

The list of federal target programs indicates:

* a brief description of each of the federal target programs adopted for implementation, including an indication of the goals, main stages and deadlines for their implementation;

* results of the implementation of the main stages for rolling federal target programs;

* the required amounts of financing for each of the federal target programs adopted for implementation in general and by year, indicating the sources of financing;

* volumes of financing of federal target programs from the federal budget in the coming year;

* government customers of programs.

The planned development plans for the public sector of the economy include indicators of its functioning and development, receipt and use of income from the disposal of state property.

The planned plans for the development of the public sector of the economy contain an assessment of the efficiency of using federal property and stakes, as well as a program for increasing the efficiency of using federal property.

The procedure for considering submitted documents and materials is determined by the State Duma when discussing the draft federal budget for the coming year.

The results of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the previous year are presented by the Government of the Russian Federation to the Federation Council and the State Duma no later than February of the current year and are subject to publication.

The Government of the Russian Federation and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation provide monthly monitoring of the state of the economy of the Russian Federation and publish information and statistical data on the socio-economic situation of the Russian Federation.

2.2 The influence of social forecasts on the development of modern society

The permanent population of the Russian Federation as of September 1, 2014 was 146.2 million people, of which 2.4 million people lived in the Crimean Federal District. Since the beginning of the year, the population of Russia has increased by 179.3 thousand people, or by 0.12 percent.

According to operational data from Rosstat, in January - August 2014, the birth rate in the country was higher than the same period last year. In just eight months of 2014, 1,288.7 thousand children were born, which is 15.2 thousand more children than in eight months of 2013. The total fertility rate for January - August 2014 was 13.3 births per 1000 people (in January - August 2013 - 13.1).

Rice. 2.1 - Number of births and deaths in 2013 and 2014.

Since June of this year, mortality rates have shown a positive downward trend. From January to August 2014, 1273.6 thousand people died, which is 9.4 thousand less than in January - August 2013. The overall mortality rate for January - August 2014 was 13.1 deaths per 1000 population (for January - August 2013 - 13.2 deaths per 1000 population). A reduction in population mortality compared to January - August of last year was observed for all main classes of causes of death (especially from diseases of the circulatory system), except for diseases of the digestive and respiratory organs and all types of transport accidents.

Since June of this year, natural population growth began, which in eight months of 2014 amounted to 15.1 thousand people (in January - August 2013 there was a natural population decline - by 9.5 thousand people). At the same time, natural population growth in January - August 2014 was recorded in 43 constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The increase in population in January - August 2014 was due to natural and migration growth.

In January - August 2014, the migration growth of the Russian population decreased by 31.7 thousand people, or 16.2%, which occurred as a result of the increased number of people leaving the Russian Federation, including due to emigrants to the CIS member states.

An increase in growth was observed in migration exchanges with the Republic of Belarus and Ukraine.

The migration situation was affected by the aggravation of the socio-political situation in Ukraine. Over the eight months of 2014, 6.2 thousand people applied for refugee status, which is 5 times more than during the same period in 2013 (1.2 thousand people) and 131 thousand people applied for temporary asylum (versus 1.5 thousand people in 2013), primarily due to people who were forced to leave Ukraine.

In total, from April 1 to August 31, 2014, 823.3 thousand Ukrainian citizens initially entered the territory of the Russian Federation and stayed.

In 2014, the implementation of the State Program to assist the voluntary resettlement of compatriots living abroad to the Russian Federation (hereinafter referred to as the State Program) continued. Over the eight months of 2014, 50.8 thousand participants of the State program with family members arrived in the Russian Federation.

Overall unemployment (according to ILO methodology) continues to decline. On average, over the nine months of 2014, its level was 5.1% of the economically active population. At the same time, already in September there is a seasonal tendency towards an increase in unemployment. Overall unemployment in September increased by 56.9 thousand people compared to August of this year.

Rice. 2.2 - General unemployment rate in 2010-2014.

Excluding the seasonal factor, the unemployment rate in the third quarter of this year was fixed at the level of the second quarter and amounted to 5.2 percent. The number of people employed in the economy over the nine months of this year compared to the corresponding period last year increased by 66.6 thousand people and amounted to 71.5 million people.

Rice. 2.3 - Registered unemployment and the need for workers in 2013-2014.

At the same time, increasing demographic restrictions associated with a reduction in the working age population lead to a reduction in the economically active population. According to the results of a population survey on employment problems, the number of economically active population in the nine months of 2014 amounted to 75.4 million people, which is 190.6 thousand people less than in the corresponding period last year.

The number of unemployed people registered with employment agencies during the first quarter of 2014 remained stable at the level of 0.94 million people, then in the second quarter there was a decrease to 0.90 million people. In the third quarter, the decline in the number of officially registered unemployed continued, and by the end of the 2014 quarter it reached its record low for the last 10 years, 0.80 million people, and decreased by 9.5 percent compared to the corresponding period in 2013.

From January to September 2014, the need of employers for workers, declared to state institutions of the employment service, increased by 632.9 thousand vacancies and as of the end of September amounted to 2.04 million vacant jobs.

The high level of employer demand for workers and the low level of the unemployed population led to a decrease in the tension coefficient per 100 announced vacancies, which in September 2014 amounted to 48.4 people (for the corresponding period in 2013 - 60.3 people).

Over the eight months of 2014, 20.4 thousand work permits were issued to highly qualified foreign specialists, which is 36.9% more than in the same period last year (14.9 thousand permits).

In order for highly qualified specialists to carry out labor activities within the framework of the Skolkovo project, 786 work permits were issued.

Rice. 2.4 - Distribution of issued work permits for HQS by country

In January - August 2014, the number of issued patents increased by 62.9% compared to last year and amounted to 1,596.8 thousand patents. The amount of payments for the acquisition of patents for 8 months of 2014 amounted to more than 11.5 billion rubles, which is 2.3 times more than for the same period last year. The largest number of patents was issued by citizens of Uzbekistan (38.7%), followed by citizens of Tajikistan (20.3%), Ukraine (12.2 percent).

In January - September 2014, real disposable incomes of the population did not show stable growth, but during the third quarter their dynamics remained positive. Moreover, after a significant increase in real incomes in July - August (2.5 - 3.4, respectively), in September they slowed down to 0.6 percent. In general, for January - September 2014, the growth of real disposable income of the population amounted to 0.7% compared to the corresponding period of the previous year.

According to preliminary estimates, the volume of cash income of the population in January - September 2014 amounted to 33,571.3 billion rubles, with an increase of 8.2 percent compared to last year. Cash expenses and savings increased by 7.4% compared to 2013 and amounted to 33,552.6 billion rubles. In contrast to previous years, the monetary income of the population in January - September 2014 exceeded expenses by 18.7 billion rubles (in January - September 2013, the monetary expenses of the population exceeded their income by 187.1 billion rubles). This is due to more restrained consumer behavior of the population in the third quarter, coupled with an increase in real disposable income.

Rice. 2.5 - Propensity to save and change in loan debt

In total, 76.7% of the population's cash income was used for consumer expenses in January - September of this year; during the same period last year, the population spent 76% of income for these purposes.

Support for consumer spending is the dynamics of lending to the population, which remained at the level of last month.

This year, the population, fearing the depreciation of the ruble, is more actively using foreign currency as a savings instrument.

The funds used to purchase foreign currency amounted to 5.3% of the population's monetary income; in 2013, the share of income used to purchase foreign currency was 4.3 percent.

The rate of net savings excluding seasonal factors in September 2014 amounted to 10%, in general for 9 months - 8.1 percent.

Rice. 2.6 - Dynamics of nominal accrued wages in 2013-2014.

The average monthly accrued wages in September 2014, according to Rosstat, amounted to 31,071 rubles and increased by 6.9 percent compared to August 2013.

On average, for January - September of the current year, nominal accrued wages amounted to 31,487 rubles (an increase relative to last year - 9.5 percent).

Real wages in September of this year compared to September 2013 decreased by 1%, and on average for the third quarter of 2014 the decrease was 0.3 percent.

The slowdown in economic growth in the context of an increasing inflationary background may restrain the growth of real wages in the fourth quarter of this year.

In general, over the nine months of 2014, real wages increased by 2.1% (5.7% over the nine months of 2013).

Due to the high base of the second half of 2013, the rate of wage growth in public sectors of the economy is expected to slow down, although they continue to remain at a high level. The exception was education, where wages decreased in August of this year compared to the same period last year by 1.2 percent. In healthcare and the provision of social services, the increase in wages during this period amounted to 10.3%, in activities related to the organization of recreation and entertainment, culture and sports - 9.4 percent. On average, for January - August 2014, wages in education increased by 12.9% compared to the same period last year, in health care and the provision of social services - by 15.2%, in activities related to organizing recreation and entertainment, culture and sports - by 20.1 percent.

The differentiation of wages between different types of economic activity this year has not undergone significant structural changes compared to previous years.

The most paid in January-August of this year among the observed types of economic activities remained financial activities and sectors of the fuel and energy complex; wages in these types of economic activities exceed wages in the economy as a whole by 2.1-2.6 times, and wages in the least paid types of economic activity (textile and clothing production, leather production, leather goods and footwear production and agriculture) by 5 times or more.

In January - August of this year, the number of employees in a comparable range of organizations relative to January - August 2013 did not change. At the same time, a comparison of data from 2014 and 2013 shows that there is still a redistribution of workers towards the trade and market services sector. During the period under review, the number of workers decreased most significantly in agriculture and fishing - by 3.7% and 4.1 percent, respectively.

The largest increase in the number of employees in the period under review this year relative to the same period last year was observed in financial activities and in wholesale and retail trade - by 3% and 4%, respectively.

Transformations carried out in social sectors aimed at optimizing ineffective institutions contribute to a reduction in the number of workers. In January - August 2014, compared to the same period last year, the number of employees in the organization of recreation and entertainment, culture and sports decreased by 2.6%, in education - by 1.1%, in healthcare - by 0.3 percent.

According to Rosstat data received from organizations other than small businesses, the total wage arrears for the range of observed types of economic activity, overdue as of October 1, 2014, amounted to 2,532 million rubles and, compared to September 1 of the current year, decreased by 26 million rubles, or by 1 percent.

The volume of overdue wages as of October 1, 2014 is less than 1% of the monthly wage fund of workers in the observed types of economic activities.

Of the total amount of overdue debt, 45.1% is due to debt incurred in 2013 and earlier.

The main share of wage arrears is due to the lack of own funds, which in September decreased by 1.4% and amounted to 2,508 million rubles (99% of the total amount of debt).

In the total volume of overdue wages, 41.5% falls on manufacturing, 15.9% on construction, 9.7% on transport, 9.9% on agriculture, hunting and the provision of services in these areas, logging, 7.9% - for mining, 5.1% - for scientific research and development.

Labor pensions in February and April 2014 were in total indexed by 8.2%, social pensions in April of the same year - by 17.1 percent. As a result, the average amount of assigned pensions, according to preliminary data from Rosstat, amounted to 10,898 rubles in September 2014 and increased by 8.5% compared to the same period in 2013, which is higher than the growth rate of consumer prices.

The cost of living per capita as a whole for the third quarter of 2014 is estimated at 8,086 rubles, with an increase of 8.8 percent compared to the corresponding period in 2013. At the same time, the cost of living of the working population in the third quarter of 2014 is estimated at 8,731 rubles, for pensioners - 6,656 rubles and for children - 7,738 rubles.

The differentiation of the population by income level for the nine months of 2014 remained at the level of the nine months of last year and amounted to 15.8 times. The share of the 10% of the most affluent population in January - September 2014 accounted for 30.5% of the total monetary income of the population, and the share of the 10% of the least affluent population - 1.9%, which corresponds to January - September 2013.

In the healthcare sector, within the framework of the implementation of the state program of the Russian Federation "Healthcare Development", in order to ensure affordable and high-quality medical care, in January - September 2014, work continued to provide state guarantees of free medical care to citizens of the Russian Federation by expanding their rights, attracting additional financial resources and their more efficient use.

In January - August 2014, high-tech medical care was provided to 394,128 patients, which is 39,926 patients more than the same period in 2013.

In January - July 2014, compared with the corresponding period in 2013, the epidemiological situation in Russia was characterized by an increase in the incidence of the population for a number of infectious diseases, including: acute hepatitis

A, disease caused by human immunodeficiency virus and asymptomatic infectious status caused by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), bacillary dysentery, acute hepatitis C, acute hepatitis B.

Among those sick with infectious diseases in January - July 2014, children aged 0 - 17 years old were: whooping cough - 96.0%, meningococcal infection - 71.3%, acute intestinal infections - 70.4%, mumps - 48, 6%, rubella - 26.5%, acute hepatitis A - 25.4 percent.

The highest rates of tuberculosis incidence per 100 thousand people in January - July 2014 occurred in the Republic of Tyva, the Jewish Autonomous Region (2.8 - 2.7 times higher than the Russian average), Primorsky Territory, Chukotka Territory , Nenets Autonomous Okrug, Irkutsk Region (2.6 - 2.1 times higher).

In January - July 2014, 42,179 people were registered with a disease caused by the human immunodeficiency virus, and with an asymptomatic infectious status caused by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), including 616 children aged 0 - 17 years. More than half (52.0%) of all identified patients with HIV infection were registered in 11 constituent entities of the Russian Federation: in the Kemerovo region, St. Petersburg, Sverdlovsk, Novosibirsk, Tyumen, Samara regions, Krasnoyarsk Territory, the Republic of Bashkortostan, Irkutsk Region, Perm Territory, Moscow region.

In the field of education, the implementation of the state program of the Russian Federation "Development of Education" for 2013 - 2020 continued; work was carried out to improve legislation in the field of education, development and state support of the best examples of domestic education; development of measures to implement Decree No. 599.

According to monthly monitoring data on the coverage of children with preschool educational services and (or) childcare services, as of September 10, 2014, the number of children aged three to seven years enrolled in preschool education is 5,105,881 people, of which children Crimean Federal District - 79,364.

A high rate of accessibility (more than 99.0% of the satisfied demand of children from three to seven years old living in a constituent entity of the Russian Federation for preschool education services) was achieved in 14 constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

The indicator of accessibility of preschool education for children aged three to seven years from 90.0% to 99.0% has been achieved in 55 constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

The most acute problem of ensuring the accessibility of preschool education for children aged three to seven years remains in 16 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, where the indicator of accessibility of preschool education for this age group does not reach 90 percent.

At the same time, the total number of children aged three to seven years registered to provide a place in state or municipal preschool education organizations registered in the electronic queue as of September 10, 2014 amounted to 496,483 people, of which children Crimean Federal District - 20,697.

In order to develop additional education for children, the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation dated September 4, 2014 No. 1726-r approved the Concept for the development of additional education for children.

By Order of the Government of the Russian Federation dated August 4, 2014 No. 1485-r, the federal state autonomous educational institution of higher education "Crimean Federal University named after V.I. Vernadsky" was created.

In order to train qualified workers, Resolution of the Government of the Russian Federation was adopted on July 30, 2014 No. 721 “On the organizing committee for submitting an application from the Russian Federation to host the WorldSkills Competition in 2019 in the Russian Federation”; From September 13 to 18, the General Assembly of WorldSkills International was held in Lucerne (Switzerland), within the framework of which the Official and Technical delegates of the WorldSkills Russia movement officially announced the Russian Federation’s intention to apply for the right to host the next world championship of blue-collar professions, WorldSkills Competition, in 2019 In Russian federation.

Based on the results of the 2014 National Championship, a National team was formed to participate in the WorldSkillsEuro Lille 2014 Professional Skills Championship. The implementation of an experiment on training retired military personnel based on the provision of state personalized educational certificates was completed. Currently, according to monitoring data, 103 students have been trained, 47 students are undergoing training, and 926 students are planned for training. The training process for discharged military personnel will continue until the end of 2014.

In the field of culture, in January - September 2014, events were held as part of the Finals of the Cultural Olympiad, which completed the four-year Cultural Olympiad, within which the Year of Cinema, the Year of Theater, the Year of Music and the Year of Museums alternated, as well as significant events in cultural sphere, including: the Russian Case program; project "Golden Mask. The best performances in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk"; The XII Festival of Theaters of Small Towns of Russia was held in Kolomna and

Zaraysk. A number of major projects have been implemented, such as the “cross” Year Russia - Holland 2013, the program of which includes events in the field of exhibition exchange, theatrical and musical art, and cinema.

In January - September 2014, 111 film and video films were released, of which 15 were feature films, 89 non-fiction films, and 23 animated films.

Activities in the field of physical culture and sports in January - September 2014 were aimed at implementing the state program of the Russian Federation "Development of physical culture and sports", the federal target program "Development of physical culture and sports in the Russian Federation for 2006 - 2015", preparation to hold international competitions on the territory of the Russian Federation.

In September of this year, the Caucasian Games Festival was held, the subject of the Russian Federation was determined as the winner (the Chechen Republic), for the award of which other interbudgetary transfers will be allocated.

From June 28 to July 4, the Spartakiad of Russian youth of pre-conscription age was held in Ryazan, within the framework of which the All-Russian review of physical training of citizens of pre-conscription and conscription age for military service was held, including competitions in air rifle shooting, swimming, grenade throwing, running , running and standing long jumps, pull-ups on the crossbar. About 700 young men of pre-conscription age took part in the sports competition.

From June 24 to 29, a motor rally was held dedicated to the 700th anniversary of St. Sergius of Radonezh. The rally was held jointly by the Ministry of Sports of the Russian Federation and DOSAAF of Russia. The route of the rally went from Moscow to Rostov-on-Don through Tula, Orel, Kursk and Belgorod, and on the way back through Rossosh, Voronezh region. The run program includes military-patriotic events (meetings with veterans and youth, laying flowers and wreaths at monuments to the defenders of the Fatherland), as well as visits to churches and cathedrals.

In accordance with the Unified calendar plan of interregional, all-Russian and international sports and physical education events for 2014, in the third quarter, sports teams of the Russian Federation took part in 209 sports events, of which: - the biathlon team in 18 events, - the alpine skiing team in 14; - Nordic combined at 9; - cross-country skiing at 16; - ski jumping at 17; - snowboarding at 12; - and freestyle at 10; - bobsleigh at 14; - curling at 18; - speed skating at 17; - Luge at 9; - figure skating at 25; - hockey at 30.

The participation of athletes from national sports teams of the Russian Federation was ensured in 14 international sports competitions, 1 World Biathlon Championship (roller skiing), held from August 18 to 24 in Tyumen, 1 European Curling Championship (double mixed) from 11 - September 21, 2014 in Denmark, as well as at the World Cup in cross-country skiing from September 17 to 22, 2014 in Italy.

In sports not included in the Olympic Games program, Russian athletes took part in 116 world championships and 75 world cups, 94 championships and 14 European cups, 43 world championships, 45 European championships, as well as 101 international sports competitions. 94 planned training events were carried out in full.

During the period from June 23 to August 15, 2014, the III Summer Spartakiad of Russian Youth 2014 was held, which was held in 33 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, 54 cities and towns of all federal districts except the North Caucasus Federal District.

On July 29, 2014 in Lausanne (Switzerland), the delegation of the Republic of Bashkortostan handed over the application book for the participation of the city of Ufa in the application campaign for the right to host the XI World Games 2021 to the International World Games Association (hereinafter referred to as IWGA) to IWGA President Jose Perurena Lopez. Also, by the deadline, application books were received from Birmingham (USA) and Lima (Peru). At the same time, from September 30 to October 3, 2014, Ufa was visited by the IWGA assessment commission consisting of: IWGA Vice-President Max Bishop, IWGA Sports Director Joakim Gossow, IWGA Honorary Vice-President Ko Koren, who noted the high level of readiness Ufa for the World Games.

3. Main problems and directions of development of social forecasting in the Russian Federation

3.1 Problems of development of social forecasting in modern conditions and ways to solve them

There is no federal-level territorial planning scheme, just as there is no document defining the directions of regional policy.

An analysis of the current situation in Russia shows that the planning system is not fully formed at any of the levels of state and municipal government. The most “complete” in terms of normative, legal and methodological aspects is the budget planning system.

It defines not only the components, but also the methods for calculating numerous types of interbudgetary transfers. However, it is necessary to improve the use of target programs as a tool for planning budget expenditures.

It is necessary to intensify activities in the field of territorial planning. The procedures for developing territorial planning documents are very costly; the municipalities that are part of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, which have provided subsidies from regional budgets to municipalities for the development of documents in accordance with the Urban Planning Code of the Russian Federation, seem to be the most prepared. The unified budget system of Russia greatly simplifies budget planning compared to other types of planning, since the budget and tax legislation define the norms and mechanisms of interaction in the format of interbudgetary relations.

Municipal planning systems appear to be the “weak link” in comparison with the systems at the federal and regional levels. The experience of law enforcement practice of modern planning at the municipal level is small, with the exception of those municipalities that, through a competitive selection procedure by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, were included in the “public finance” reform program and formed the main elements of the budget and socio-economic planning system, as well as those few cities that who have traditionally given system management priority.

The purpose of social forecasting

The main goal of forecasting is to develop scientifically based options for the development of an object. During the forecasting process, the main goals are developed.

Firstly, the objectives of the probable development of the object are determined and motivated.
Secondly, a means and methods for solving the problem are prescribed.

Types of forecasting

Forecasting can be of various types:

socio-economic forecasting.
legal.
socio-political.
socio-cultural and sociological.

Forecasting performs various activities.

Firstly, orienting work is based on optimizing the choice of socially significant problems and ways to resolve them.
Secondly, the normative function determines the trend of social needs.
Thirdly, the preventive function identifies and describes possible negative consequences.

Forecasting uses methods such as:

analysis
analogies
hypothesis
experiment
testing and surveys.

This process is applied in various fields, for example, in the labor market. It is there that information about available jobs and vacant positions about laid-off workers is analyzed.

The expected demand for students in educational institutions of various specialties is investigated.

Forecasts make it possible to assess the market situation and take measures to influence it.

Professional forecasting explores the labor market in three advanced areas. First the labor supply assumption is made, then the labor demand and the resulting labor allocation.

When forecasting employment Methods such as interviews and surveys are often used.

Family forecasting

The role of forecasting in family and family policy is very necessary. Statistics have recently shown a continuing negative trend, that is, a significant increase in divorces.

The forecast of specialists, taking into account real data, makes it possible to find the causes of pre-crisis conditions in the family and develop proposals for resolving conflict issues.

Psychologists are able to give advice to conflicting parties to discuss discord in family life and by discussing, people find a way out. In many cases, mutual understanding arises and spouses often realize that family life is about concessions and self-esteem for each other.

Socio-ethnic forecasting

Forecasting in socio-ethnic relations. This is a perhaps complex and sensitive social work issue.

The role of forecasting research in this area is increasing due to the crisis economic situation and social instability in countries. This work is necessary where many migrants and refugees live.

The current forecast is premature, and the work done allows us to bypass interethnic conflicts with their tragic consequences. Thanks to forecasting in the world, scientific and technological progress is promoted, conflicts are resolved and the standard of living improves.

Video on social forecasting

Social Forecasting

Unlike foresight, social forecasting is a probabilistic statement about the future. with a relatively high degree of reliability. The origins of social forecasting as a science are usually attributed to the 20–30s of the 20th century. It was then that the polysemy and polyvariance of socio-historical development began to mature, and new alternatives for the future appeared. Awareness of the new social reality gradually laid the preconditions for the formalization of prognostics as scientific knowledge.

Sociologist V.I. Kurbatov defines social forecasting as the anticipation of trends and prospects for the possible development of social systems, objects, social phenomena, and processes. Forecasting is based on the identified parameters of the occurrence, existence of stable forms and development trends of this phenomenon. The object of social forecasting can be all social systems, all phenomena occurring in society. The main task of forecasting is the scientific development of forecasts, i.e. scientifically based judgments about the possible states of objects in the future or about alternative ways and timing of their implementation and achievement. The forecast describes the future state of the system.

According to V.N. Ivanov, a forecast as a form of social foresight describes the possible degree of achievement of certain goals depending on the method of our actions. Moreover, it can and should cover both controlled and relatively uncontrollable (spontaneously occurring) processes. In turn, Zh.T. Toshchenko interprets social forecasting as identifying development options and choosing the most acceptable, optimal, based on resources, time and social forces capable of ensuring their implementation.

Forecasting is a look into the future, an assessment of possible development paths and the consequences of certain decisions. Therefore, forecasting occupies an important place in social management. After all, every management decision, even an elementary one, presupposes a certain foresight, since this decision projects action in the future. Only on the basis of scientifically based forecasts can one act and manage with perspective. Science in general has a predictive function. It is science that is able to build a short-term or long-term forecast based on such indicators as knowledge of the quality and essence of reality; knowledge of the laws of functioning of this reality; knowledge of the laws of development of reality.

When it comes to social phenomena, forecasting is especially important here, as it shows the need for certain changes and the possibility of implementing these changes.

The prognostic function of sociology is a reflection of society’s need to create conditions for the conscious development and implementation of a scientifically based prospect for the development of each social division of society. Social forecasting must take into account the reverse impact of the forecast on people’s consciousness and their activities, which can lead to its “self-realization” (or “self-destruction”). This feature of forecasting requires the development of a scientific forecast in the form of options, development alternatives that describe possible forms and manifestations, the pace of development of processes taking into account control influences, as well as their qualitative changes.

Features and types of social forecasting. Social forecasting has its own characteristics. Firstly, the formulation of the goal here is relatively general and abstract, allowing for a significant degree of probability. Secondly, social forecasting does not have a prescriptive nature. A forecast only provides information for making a decision or developing a plan, indicating the possibility of one or another path of future development. Thirdly, social forecasting has its own methods - complex extrapolation, modeling, experiment, etc.

Knowledge of the arrangement of society in twenty, fifty or a hundred years today has turned into a kind of instrument of influence on social processes and mass consciousness. Futurology deals with the problems of forecasting the future states of society and the development of social processes. This term was introduced into scientific circulation in the 40s of the 20th century by the German sociologist O. Fleichtheim to designate a social discipline, the main subject of which was to be the future of humanity. Today, futurology examines the problems of the world and humanity as a whole, the global economy, the future of specific countries, upcoming changes in the world order, possible changes in ethical values and social priorities. As part of futurological research, forecasts are developed.

Typically the following are highlighted types of forecast: search, normative, target, extrapolation. A search (research) forecast is to determine the possible states of a forecast object in the future, and a normative forecast is to determine the ways and timing of achieving possible states (accepted as given) of a forecast object in the future. These two types of forecasts allow us to determine the presence of prognostic elements in various studies. To analyze forward-looking statements, a target forecast is also used, which can be divided into two types: a target search forecast, which answers the question about the goals that can be achieved using given means; and a target normative forecast, answering the question about the means that are necessary and sufficient to achieve the given goals.

The extrapolation forecast stands out in particular. This is information obtained by extending a pattern into a future period of time. A distinctive feature of such a forecast is that there is no alternative. Unlike the first two types, which provide for a variable development of events, it is based on a logical premise about the development of the object of foresight on the basis of a certain trend, which should continue in the future.

Sources and methods of social forecasting. Social forecasting is based on three sources of information about the future. Firstly, it is an extrapolation into the future of trends and patterns of development that are well known in the past and present. Secondly, this is the modeling of research objects, i.e. presenting them in a simplified form, convenient for obtaining predictive conclusions. Thirdly, this is a predictive assessment of experts.

– reliability of the forecast – assessment of the probability of the forecast being realized;

– validity of the forecast – the degree of compliance of the methods and initial information with the object, purpose and objectives of the forecast;

– forecast error – a posteriori value of the deviation of the forecast from the actual state of the object or the ways of its implementation;

– source of error – factor causing the occurrence of forecast error;

– forecast option – one of the forecasts that make up a group of possible forecasts of foresight objects.

One of the first widely used in prognostics was the method extrapolations. According to the definition of Zh.T. Toshchenko, it consists in constructing dynamic series of indicators of the predicted process with the earliest possible date in the past up to the date of the forecasts. Expert methods, forecast scenarios, and modeling are also widely used in forecasting. Thus, social forecasting is based on the use of a wide variety of methods for studying the objective patterns of social development, on modeling options for their subsequent evolution in order to form, justify and optimize promising solutions.

Celery stalks, composition, chemical properties and popularity in various national cuisines. Benefits and possible harm when consumed. Recipes and interesting facts about the plant.

The content of the article:

Petiole or leaf celery is a cultivated plant of the Apiaceae family, which was found wild in ancient times in Greece and Rome. Then they didn’t even think about including it in the daily menu - they used it as the main ingredient in a funeral dish. Celery stalks can still be found in the territory of modern Greece and India in swampy places, among wild herbs, but they are not as fleshy as those of cultivated varieties. However, they also have a fresh, tart aroma that cannot be confused with anything else. The plant is perennial, the petioles can reach 70-100 cm in height, the leaves are pinnate, dissected, feather-like, with umbrella inflorescences of greenish-white small flowers. Now stalk celery is a popular ingredient in European culinary cuisine. It is added to salads, hot dishes, soups and even jam are cooked with it.

Composition and calorie content of celery stalks

Celery stalks are so low in calories that their nutritional value is considered negative. There are many diets in which they are the main type of food.

Calorie content of celery stalks per 100 g is 13 kcal, of which:

Proteins - 0.9 g;
Carbohydrates - 2.1 g;
Fats - 0.1 g;
Dietary fiber - 1.8 g;
Ash - 1 g.
Water - 94.1 g.

Also, 100 g of the product contains organic acids - 0.1 g, mono- and disaccharides - 2 g, and starch - 0.1 g.

Celery stalks contain a very rich complex of vitamins, per 100 g:

Vitamin PP (Niacin equivalent) - 0.5 mg;
Vitamin E (alpha tocopherol) - 0.5 mg;
Vitamin C (ascorbic acid) - 38 mg;
Vitamin B9 (folic acid) - 21 mcg;
Vitamin B6 (pyridoxine) - 0.08 mg;
Vitamin B2 (riboflavin) - 0.1 mg;
Vitamin B1 (thiamine) - 0.02 mg;
Vitamin A (retinol equivalent) - 750 mcg;
Beta-carotene - 4.5 mg;
Vitamin B3 (PP) - 0.4 mg.

Macroelements per 100 g:

Phosphorus - 77 mg;
Potassium - 430 mg;
Sodium - 200 mg;
Magnesium - 50 mg;
Calcium - 72 mg.

There is only one trace element - 1.3 mg of iron per 100 g.

The benefits of celery stalks are provided by the following vitamins that are included in their composition:

Vitamin A is responsible for the regeneration of organic tissues and the protective properties of the body.
B-carotene is a provitamin and antioxidant.
Vitamin C is an immune stimulant, helps in the absorption of iron, increases the tone of vascular walls and helps strengthen capillary vessels.

In dishes, stem celery is tasty in any form - it is eaten raw, fried, steamed, boiled. However, you need to know: the beneficial properties are not preserved even after short-term heat treatment.

Useful properties of celery stalks

Celery stalks are included in the daily menu for weight loss, to improve health, to replenish vitamin reserves during transitional seasons, and to prevent ARVI diseases.

The benefits to the body when eating the leafy part of the plant are as follows:

Accelerates digestive processes, stimulates peristalsis due to the high content of dietary fiber.
Increases the activity of beneficial bacteria and prevents intestinal dysbiosis.
Eliminates rotting processes in the stomach and has an analgesic effect in gastritis with high acidity and gastric ulcers in the active stage.
Removes excess cholesterol from the blood and dissolves already accumulated cholesterol deposits.
Improves memory function - the ability to remember when eating celery 3-4 times a week during the week increases by 2 times.
It increases the digestibility of protein, so people try to use it as an additive to meat dishes.
Flushes oxalates from the kidneys and joints and prevents the accumulation of new stones.
It has a cleansing effect on blood vessels and the liver - only in its raw form.
Improves the condition of the cardiovascular system and prevents the development of atherosclerosis.
It has a pronounced sedative effect and speeds up falling asleep.
Reduces high blood pressure due to diuretic properties.
Relieves the feeling of fatigue, speeds up recovery after workouts, which is very important for losing weight.

Another important beneficial property of petiole celery concerns sexual function. The plant is an aphrodisiac and increases libido and potency in men. For women, it dulls menstrual pain.

Harm and contraindications to consuming celery stalks

But even the most useful product should not be overly carried away. You can stay healthy only with a varied diet - this must be taken into account when following a diet for weight loss, in which stalk celery is the main ingredient.

The contraindications for consuming celery stalks are as follows:

Arterial hypertension with a pronounced decrease in blood pressure. In this case, the pressure reading may drop so much that it becomes difficult to move.
Postoperative condition or rehabilitation process after serious illnesses.
Varicose veins and thrombophlebitis, so as not to provoke a worsening of the condition due to increased coagulation.
Large stones in the kidneys and any in the gall bladder and ducts, so as not to provoke colic.
Enterocolitis and colitis, tendency to diarrhea.
Pancreatitis, even in history, cholecystitis at the acute stage.
Pregnancy - acceleration of peristalsis can provoke uterine tone.
Bronchial asthma - due to the high content of essential oils.

A relative contraindication to introducing many dishes with celery into a diet for weight loss is an increase in appetite. This action is ensured by the high content of essential oils. It is impossible to eat enough of the low-calorie petioles and leaves of the plant. This leads to disruptions in the diet or, if persistent, increases the possibility of developing gastritis or peptic ulcers.

You should not introduce raw celery stalks into your diet if you are prone to polyvalent allergies - this can increase the production of histamine and provoke negative reactions to various types of foods. If you are allergic to celery, specific allergens are: carrots, parsley, dill, fennel, coriander, cumin and anise. Possible allergens may include: meadow grasses, nuts of all kinds, curries, cereals, ragweed, cucumbers, birch, tomatoes, wormwood, melons, mangoes, peppers and... latex.

Celery Stem Recipes

There are so many dishes that use celery stalks as an ingredient that they cannot be included in a thick cookbook. The plant is included in the national cuisine of France, Italy, America, India... When preparing dishes from the petioles, one should take into account the taste: the white stems are sweetish, while the red stems are tart and smell more pronounced - they contain more essential oils.

Celery stalk recipes:

Salad "Provence". The boiled chicken breast is cut into small cubes, fried, and 3-4 celery stalks are chopped into small pieces. The orange is peeled, the seeds are removed, each slice is divided into 3 parts - it is better to remove the white films, but the transparent ones can be left. Lettuce leaves are torn by hand. You can present the salad on whole leaves, but it will be inconvenient to eat later. Place lettuce leaves on a plate, a mixture of celery and orange in the center, and chicken breast around the edges. Season with a mixture of vegetable oil and lemon juice or soy sauce. If preference is given to lemon juice, add salt to the salad.
Celery salt. Celery stalks are washed in running water, removing the slightest dirt, and placed on a sieve or paper towel to get rid of excess water. Next, each petiole is cut as finely as possible and laid out on a baking sheet. The oven should be preheated to 150°C. You need to dry it for so long until the pieces of the plant are reduced to the size of a pea and become brittle. After cooling, the “peas” should crumble with the slightest pressure. Then the dried celery is mixed with sea salt - 1/3, the seeds of the plant are added and ground until completely homogeneous. Dried celery is placed in sterilized dry jars and the lids are rolled up. You can store the workpieces at room temperature in a dark place. Used as a seasoning for salads and hot dishes.
Cream soup. Ingredients for the dish: 2 large stalks of celery, potatoes - 2-3 pieces, 1 piece each - parsley root, carrots, 2 egg yolks, a tablespoon of melted butter. Pour 2 liters of water into a saucepan, add oil there, and put on fire. When the water boils, put all the vegetables, chopped at random, into it. When the vegetables are cooked, dissolve the yolks in a small amount of broth. Grind the vegetables with a blender, return them to the pan, bring the broth to a boil and reduce the heat as much as possible. At this stage, pour in the broth with the yolks, stirring constantly. Add heat again, bring to a boil, add salt and pepper if necessary. When serving, the soup is seasoned with sour cream and sprinkled with any herbs of your choice.
Stuffed stems. Chicken breast (any part is possible) is cut into cubes and marinated in a mixture of lemon juice and pepper. The meat should be in the marinade for 30-45 minutes. Thick celery stalks are cut into pieces 10 cm long, like stuffing pasta, and opened on one side, cutting lengthwise. Soy sauce is diluted with water - 1/1, celery is soaked in it for 30 minutes. The marinated chicken meat is fried until cooked, salted, peppered, kneaded and the stems are stuffed with it. Grease a baking sheet with olive oil, lay out the stuffed celery, sprinkle with Parmesan and bake in the oven for 15 minutes until golden brown. Preheat the oven to 180°C.
Celery cocktail. Ingredients: celery stalks - 2 pieces, kiwi - 5 pieces, lemon or lime, mint leaves, a glass of water, ice, honey. Place celery, lime and kiwi in a blender, chop and add water. Water is added depending on the desired consistency of the cocktail. Ice is placed on the bottom of the glass, the drink is poured, honey is added to taste, and garnished with mint leaves. You can put mint in a blender.

To prevent celery leaves and petioles from losing their freshness, they need to be placed in a glass of water and, covered with a bag or foil on top, placed on a shelf in the refrigerator door. This way they retain their beneficial properties and qualities. You can not only cook dishes from leaf celery, but also decorate the table with it.

The antiquity of the herbaceous plant is evidenced by mentions of celery in the manuscripts of the Egyptians and Greeks.

Tutankhamun's shroud was decorated with wreaths, into which cornflowers, lotus, willow branches, olives and celery were woven. And in the Iliad and Odyssey, Homer sang of beautiful meadows where cornflower flowers entwined with celery stalks.

The most famous courtesan of France - Madame de Pompadour - back in the 18th century, she treated her royal lover King Louis XV to celery soup with truffles in order to increase the king's love fervor and eliminate frigidity. The well-known heartthrob Casanova included raw celery stalks in his diet every day.

Now celery of all types is included in the top three most popular vegetables among French chefs, along with onions and carrots.

Celery first appeared in America only in 1856, it was brought there by Scottish resident George Taylor. The plant was so loved by consumers that already in 1872, farmers began to sow petiole celery as a food crop.

Now American cooks from Louisiana and Kajut have identified their sacred vegetable trinity - celery, bell peppers and onions.

In Russia, petiole celery began to be prepared only in the middle of the 18th century; Catherine II brought it into fashion.

The most popular varieties of leaf and petiole celery: Bodrost, Kartuli, Samurai, Malachite, Pascal. They ripen approximately the same way - 2.5-3 months after planting; they differ only in the amount of food mass and climatic resistance.

The finer the celery stalk is chopped, the more nutrients the body will receive. Scientists have not yet been able to explain why this happens.

Watch a video about celery:

Celery stalks can be used to make chopsticks. They are used to pick up rice, fried potatoes, pieces of meat, any vegetable salad, berries from jam, ice cream. Sticks are convenient for stirring juices - carrot, tomato, and even milkshake. There is only one downside to using celery sticks - sometimes they run out before the main dish.